A Record El Niño May Reshape the Selling Season Ahead

By William “Bill” Boswell

Bill is widely known as one of New Jersey’s most sought after real estate agents and is a sales associate of Keller Williams Prosperity Realty.

This winter is setting up to affect real estate in a way we may not have seen in quite some time, which is remarkable when you consider how much last year’s winter already disrupted things here in North Jersey. Let me explain where we are, because getting ahead of this could shape your entire selling timeline.

A couple of months ago, I started reading about a potential super El Niño taking shape, the water out in the Pacific warming up and setting up to be one of the strongest events in a long time. Fast forward to now, and that forecast has only grown stronger. Forecasters are saying we could be looking at one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history this fall into winter. What that tends to do for the East Coast is generate a great deal of precipitation, which is striking when you remember how much snow we already saw last year. Now, nothing about weather is guaranteed, El Niño winters can run a little warmer, and how much of that precipitation falls as snow depends on the cold air lining up, but the pattern points toward a wet, stormy season with real potential for snow and ice.

You might be wondering how this connects to real estate. Here’s the answer: few things affect a housing market like a cold, wet, snowy winter. Last year is the perfect example. The spring market got pushed unusually late here because the snow fell heavily and then sat on the ground, refusing to melt until well into the spring season. That delayed everything. Sellers who were ready to go found themselves waiting for all of it to clear before they could even begin prepping their homes to list. The whole selling season started late as a result.

This year is an even more interesting situation, because we’re looking at the potential for an even wetter winter. Even if an El Niño runs slightly warmer than last year, that doesn’t erase the snow and ice, it just adds rain and mixed weather to the picture. If this becomes a consistent, stormy pattern that lingers, it could hold off next year’s spring market until later once again. And that connects directly to something I covered in my last video, the reliable pop in activity that the New Jersey market sees each fall.

Put those two pieces together and the takeaway is worth your attention. The fall sales cycle that typically runs through September and October may be the last stretch where you can fully count on steady buyer activity until late into next spring. I want to be honest that we don’t know any of this for certain. Weather forecasters sometimes can’t tell you what tomorrow holds, let alone the whole winter. That said, everything they’ve been saying about this super El Niño has been shaping up accurately so far, and if last year taught us anything, it’s that we shouldn’t count on a mild, easy winter this time around.

So here’s the practical thought I’ll leave you with. Understanding how these markets work, and understanding that a spring market pushed a month or two later can force a seller to simply delay a move they’ve already been planning, may be reason enough to look at this a little earlier this fall. It could be worth seeing what it would take to get your home on the market now, so you’re not stuck waiting out the winter cycle. I’m always here to answer any questions you have.

Call or text me at 973-224-4605, email me at northjerseyluxury@gmail.com, or visit blog.theomegarealestategroup.com.